Prediction Picks let you trade event contracts based on real-world outcomes — things like who wins a game, whether a team covers the spread, or how a total settles. They are financial instruments traded through a regulated exchange, not traditional fantasy or Pick'em entries.

When you make a Prediction Pick, you are purchasing a contract based on your prediction of an outcome. Each contract is priced based on the probability of that outcome. If your prediction is correct, each contract pays out $1.00. If your prediction is incorrect, the contract pays out $0.

You can purchase multiple contracts for the same market, and you may have the option to cash out your position early before the event concludes.

Contract prices reflect the estimated probability of an outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at $0.65 implies roughly a 65% chance of that outcome. Exchange fees may apply in addition to the contract price.

Winning contracts settle at $1.00 each. Your net profit is the difference between $1.00 and what you paid per contract, minus any applicable fees. Losing contracts settle at $0.00 and the amount paid is not returned.

Example (illustrative only)

You purchase 5 contracts at $0.70 each + $0.02 exchange fee per contract = $3.60 total ($3.50 + $0.10 in fees).

A contract must be purchased prior to the event in order to be eligible for payout.

Pick'em entries use multipliers and require you to go Higher or Lower on player props. Prediction Picks use probability-based contract pricing and cover game-level outcomes like game winners, spreads, and totals. The two products are completely separate — Pick'em rules do not apply to Prediction Picks, and vice versa.

Underdog Predict (UDM, LLC) is a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) registered with the CFTC and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). Depending on when your account was created, your markets may be powered by Kalshi or by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA). For more information, see Your Exchange & Why Experiences May Differ.

Do I have to participate in Prediction Picks?

No. Prediction Picks are available to customers in eligible states, but participation is entirely optional.

How do odds or multipliers work?

Prediction Picks don't use traditional odds or multipliers. Instead, contracts are priced based on the probability of an outcome. A contract priced at $0.63 implies roughly a 63% chance of that outcome occurring. The price you pay determines your potential profit.

Which payment methods can be used?

Currently, only debit cards (including Apple Pay) and Trustly can be used for Prediction Picks. Credit cards and bonus cash are not accepted.